What’s behind the latest swirls of Verstappen/Mercedes speculation

There are certain recurring storylines that come around in Formula 1. For example, the topic of the 2026 cars has been a prominent one at times this weekend in Austria, with the usual scaremongering of drivers not liking how the cars feel or perform in the simulator. That’s a regular thread around regulation changes, with an initial dislike of the differences from the current cars (due to both a lack of experience and lack of performance), and some clear issues that appear early. Over time the worst ones are addressed, and it’s a much more refined machine that hits the track by the time the cars are actually ready to run in physical form.

Driver futures are also a predictable talking point into the summer months, with silly season ensuring anyone out of contract faces multiple questions about their futures.

But I’ll admit it’s slightly surprising that there’s a sense of deja vu surrounding what is becoming the main off-track storyline this weekend, as a potential move to Mercedes for Max Verstappen has gathered momentum.

A year ago, it was a significant topic amid the unrest at Red Bull and with Lewis Hamilton leaving Mercedes for Ferrari, but it was at this very race that Max confirmed he would be staying at Red Bull for 2025 at least.

A lack of a new contract for George Russell so far – with his impressive performances this season making him a potential target for other teams in 2026 – has only served to increase the feeling that Mercedes has been courting Verstappen once again, despite team principal Toto Wolff saying earlier this year he wouldn’t flirt outside of a relationship he’s happy with, and that no conversations had been had with the Dutchman about his Red Bull future.

Yet when Russell told Sky Sports in Austria that “It's only normal that conversations with the likes of Verstappen are ongoing,” it re-ignited the focus on a potential move.

“But from my side, if I'm performing as I'm doing, what have I got to be concerned about? There are two seats in every Formula 1 team,” Russell added.

Mercedes' Wolff says he's perfectly happy with his current line-up. But... Clive Rose/Getty Images

Two seats that could potentially be occupied by both Russell and Verstappen, according to Wolff.

“I can imagine every line-up,” Wolff said. “I've had [Nico] Rosberg and Hamilton fighting for a world championship, so everything else afterwards is easy. So, there's pros and cons of having two drivers fighting each other hard. And we've seen examples where that functioned and other examples where it didn't. When it comes to the contract situation, our sport is pressure – constant pressure – whether you're in the car, outside of the car, you just need to cope with that. And George knows that, like any other driver knows it.

“I feel that when you're being put in a comfort zone, sometimes that is actually more detrimental to performance than having a certain pressure point in the system.”

Russell has previously said he understands why Verstappen would be a target, but his comments in Austria were the first time he claimed talks were ongoing, while he waits to resolve his own future. Although Wolff says he doesn’t want to conduct any contract talks in public, he also had no qualms with his current driver highlighting the situation.

“I like what George says and I'm always supportive of the driver. And there is no such thing as saying things I wouldn't want him to say. I think we are very transparent in the team of what we do, what we plan, and we've been like that since I was being put in charge of that. So that's not the issue.

“At the moment, clearly, you need to explore what's happening in the future. But it doesn't change anything of what I said before about George or about Kimi [Antonelli], about the line-up that I'm extremely happy of having.”

Wolff insists there is nothing more that Russell needs to do to convince him about his abilities, having won the last race in Canada and topped FP1 in Austria prior to the recent media questioning.

“He has been part of our program for 10 years or so. He's always performed to the expectations that we have set, and he's continuing to do so," Wolff said. “We haven't given him a car to win a world championship in the last three years, so that's completely on us. The times the car has been good, he has been winning races and you can see, today, he's always there. You know that when he's getting in the car, he's going to extract what is in the car.

“So having said that, for whatever reason, in early summer, those kind of contract discussions start to end up being accelerated in the media or accelerated because of a lack of information. Well, what I have been doing the last 30 years in a normal business, contract discussions are not being held as town halls. So everything is normal. Everything goes to plan.”

But that point, coupled with an apparent admission of talks with Verstappen – “There is no 'flirt' in that sense – you can flirt or you have conversations” – only adds to the growing sense that both sides have at least shown themselves to be open to a move.

Verstappen also failed to take the opportunity to confirm he would be at Red Bull next year when offered it, at the team’s home race of all places.

“I don’t think we need to talk about that,” Verstappen said. “I don’t know, do you want me to repeat what I said last year? I don’t know. It’s the same answer.

“I don’t even remember what I said last year, really. But again, it’s not really on my mind. Just driving well, trying to push the performance, and then we focus on next year.”

It was hardly an unequivocal response, but then Verstappen will often simply not address topics he doesn’t want to, regardless of the optics. It’s only when added to the comments from Russell and Wolff that it’s opening up a real feeling that the 2026 Mercedes contracts could be done with Verstappen in mind.

Whether that’s a deal for Verstappen as soon as next year or a shorter-term commitment to Russell in order to keep options open beyond that remains to be seen, but the latter approach is what opened the door for Hamilton to leave for Ferrari and catch Wolff out 18 months ago. The team principal is at least aware he might be running the same risk of Russell speaking to other teams if he feels his future at Mercedes is not secure.

“We are going into territory that I don't want to discuss out here, but people talk, people explore," Wolff said. "And most important is that in our organization, we are transparent. But it doesn't change a millimeter of my opinion of George, his abilities or anything else.”

Wolff insists Russell is far more likely to be in a Mercedes next year than Verstappen is, but the topic becoming a serious talking point once again suggests strong interest on both sides to make a Mercedes-Verstappen collaboration happen at some stage.